NYISO’s 2022 Reliability Report Shows Shrinking Margins and Growing Problems

December 2nd, 2022

On Wednesday, November 30, New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) released its 2022 Reliability Needs Assessment. The 92-page report includes a wealth of information about what New York’s electric grid needs to maintain reliability margins in the future.

That future appears to problematic due to New York’s climate policies and all-electric push. This particular passage in the report forecasts thinning reliability margins and the impacts on New York City:

“Reliability margins decrease across the state through time, but the reliability of the New York City area faces the greatest risk due to limited generation and transmission to serve forecasted demand. For the assumed expected summer weather, the New York City grid as planned has limited transmission security margin in 2025 and approaches zero in ten years.”

New York City’s outlook improves in 2026 with the scheduled addition of power from the Champlain Hudson Power Express. That 339-mile transmission line will run from Quebec to New York City. Per the governor’s office, construction on that line started on November 30. If this project falls just two years behind schedule, New York City won’t have the power it needs according to the following chart from NYISO’s report.

NYISO also repeated its previous findings that the state will switch from being a summer peaking system to a winter peaking system by 2034 – meaning that consumers across the state will use more electricity during the winter months. This is where things become very problematic for Upstate consumers. On average, winter temperatures for Upstate counties reach approximately 20 degrees according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. NYISO’s winter margins fall into negative territory in just six years under a scenario with extreme cold and a gas shortage. That scenario becomes even more disastrous in the following decade.

Bear in mind that the goals of the CLCPA lead New York to a zero-emissions grid by 2040. Residents across the state have every right to be concerned about the future of the grid and the state’s energy policies. Millions of New Yorkers rely on the grid every day to power their lives. Without a reliable and resilient grid, the security of New York’s residents and economy are at risk. As the Climate Action Council readies its final scoping plan and legislators consider next steps, we strongly urge them to educate themselves with data from NYISO and other energy experts.