Albany Times Union Report: New York will likely miss a major green energy deadline

July 3rd, 2024

Two major state energy agencies cast doubt on getting 70 percent renewable energy by 2030

Read the full article by Rick Karlin here.

ALBANY — Citing high inflation and what is expected to be an unprecedented increase in demand for power, two major energy agencies on Tuesday said it was unlikely that the state will meet its target of having an electricity grid that is 70 percent renewable by the 2030 deadline.

That deadline is laid out in the state’s landmark 2019 Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act that calls for an ambitious switch to green energy such as solar and wind in order to counter climate change resulting from the use of fossil fuels and their carbon emissions.

“2030 isn’t the end. It’s a milestone along the way,” Doreen Harris, president and CEO of New York State Energy Research and Development Agency, said referring to NYSERDA’s draft report that predicts the 70 percent renewable goal will more likely be achieved in 2033.

The prediction that New York wasn’t going to reach the 70 percent milestone by 2030 isn’t a surprise to many in the energy industry who for years have warned that the state’s timetable for decarbonizing the electric grid was exceptionally ambitious and perhaps unrealistic. The hurdles include costs, technical constraints and growing demand for electricity prompted by the boom in artificial intelligence and by construction of large microchip factories planned for upstate including the Micron plant slated to go near Syracuse and expansion of the GlobalFoundries chipfab in Saratoga County.

But Tuesday’s report may be the first official acknowledgement the 2030 goal may be out of reach.

“The CLCPA 70 percent target is extraordinarily ambitious as envisioned by the CLCPA and has subsequently been rendered even more ambitious by the combination of deployment headwinds and load growth tailwinds,” reads a summary of a draft biennial Clean Energy Standard review released this week, and put together by NYSERDA and the state Public Service Department.

NYSERDA is responsible for procuring energy sales contracts from various sources, including solar and wind developers. They also administer a wide range of grants to help get green energy projects started. The Department of Public Service has authority in setting utility rates and other regulations pertaining to the energy sector.

In 2022, the most recent reporting year, renewable energy — including hydroelectric power — supplied 25 percent of the state’s electric power, according to the report. Add in nuclear power and it was 46 percent, with the rest largely coming from natural gas and oil.

Newer renewables remain a small, but growing part of the mix. According to the New York Independent System Operator, which oversees the state’s electric grid, “other renewables” including solar make up less than 4 percent of the state’s power mix, while wind is currently less than 1 percent. Hydropower, which includes decades-old plants in western New York, are almost 24 percent, or the bulk of renewable energy sources.

Aside from that more than half of the power comes from natural gas or oil-burning power plants.

For about a year, it’s been clear that some sectors — notably the large offshore wind farms slated to go off the Long Island coast — are proving far costlier than originally estimated. Earlier this year, NYSERDA had to basically re-bid some of the multi-million projects after developers, including international wind developers like Equinor and Orsted companies, pulled out of deals that were developed several years ago before construction costs spiked.

Inflation, which has hit much of the overall economy, has also slowed the growth of projects designed to support the offshore wind industry. The Port of Albany’s Beacon Island expansion, where a new wind tower factory was initially planned, currently remains vacant as plans to develop the site are stalled amid unexpected construction cost increases.

Also complicating the green energy conversion is what is expected to be an unprecedented demand for electricity in New York. That’s driven by a few things — including the construction of facilities like Micron’s planned chipfab and by the shift to electrify buildings and cars. As part of the CLCPA’s effort to reduce the use of carbon-emitting fossil fuels, the law contains sweeping efforts to switch the heating and cooling systems in new houses to electric rather than gas.

And the law calls for a ban on gas-powered cars by 2035 in favor of electric vehicles, or EVs, which are plugged in rather than gassed up. Perhaps ironically, those moves will bring a much higher need for electricity production across the state.

One estimate predicts that initial predictions called for an electric load – or measure of how much power capacity is needed — that would be 151,678 GWh or gigawatt hours by 2030. But that amount is now expected to grow to 164,910 GWh by 2030.

“That’s one of the things that has been notoriously hard to predict,” said Rory Christian, chairman and CEO of the Public Service Commission, who joined in with Harris in a telephone interview with the Times Union on Tuesday. “We’re seeing load growth projections far higher than what we’ve seen in the past. That’s a good thing and a bad thing,” Christian added.

It’s good because it reflects a growing manufacturing sector in the state, especially regarding computer chips. It also indicates that the state is moving toward cleaner building and transportation options by swapping electric power for natural gas or motor fuel.

The bad part is that it increases the state’s appetite for electric power.

Reaction to the draft report was swift from critics of the CLCPA, who had long maintained that it is unrealistically ambitious and could bring painfully higher utility costs for consumers.

“Given the amount of government resources committed to the task and billions of dollars passed on to consumers, this long overdue concession should give policymakers ample reason to press pause and reassess the ambitious timeline and goals of the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act,’’ said Justin Wilcox, executive director of Upstate United, a coalition of business and trade groups across upstate.

Environmentalists, though, urged the administration of Gov. Kathy Hochul to double down. “New York must use every tool at its disposal to meet the 70 percent renewable electricity target by 2030. This is a legal mandate” said Vanessa Fajans-Turner, executive director of Environmental Advocates NY. “The Hochul administration holds significant power to act. They should. Today.”

While the law does call for 70 percent by 2030, Harris noted that it also instructs the Public Service Department to review progress and consider the state’s ability to meet the timetable.

The report outlines a number of possible options for speeding the switch to green energy. Those include extending from 20 to 25 years the “tenor” or payback period during which wind developers get a guaranteed floor price for their energy. That would allow longer amortization periods of the costlier offshore wind farms.

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Other options include a look at new high-tech nuclear power plants that are being developed, and allowing utility companies like National Grid or Con Edison to develop their own sources of power if they want to. Utilities are currently restricted to delivering power produced by generators via their wires or gas pipelines.

Another possibility would be load flexibility or inducements for consumers to say, turn down their air conditioners a bit or run their smart appliances such as dishwasher or laundry machines late a night when power consumption is low. That can even out the peaks and valleys throughout the day for power demands.

“Looking at all options is the best path forward,” Christian said.