Politico: Trump victory further threatens New York’s climate goals
November 25th, 2024
New York’s efforts to slash emissions face major risks from a second Trump administration. Environmental advocates press Gov. Kathy Hochul to step up.
By: Marie J. French | 11/25/2024
ALBANY, New York — If President-elect Donald Trump follows through on his campaign promises, New York’s already-vanishing chances of achieving its climate goals will recede even further.
Trump has vowed to “end” offshore wind projects, threatened incentives for clean heating technology, criticized limits on vehicle emissions and more. Many of the federal policies that could be at risk are fundamental to New York’s plans to reduce emissions — and advocates say other environmental protections could be at risk, as well.
“If he wants to fuck with us — I just said it that way — he can, because he doesn’t actually believe in laws,” said Sen. Liz Krueger, a Democrat from Manhattan.
Environmental leaders in the state, having seen Trump’s playbook before, are pulling out their old strategies and looking to Gov. Kathy Hochul to provide national leadership on climate. After all, they say, New York passed its landmark climate law during Trump’s first term.
“We need national leadership and we’re not going to get it from Washington, D.C.,” said Julie Tighe, president of the New York League of Conservation Voters.
The future of the 2030 goals enshrined into state law — 70 percent renewable electricity and a 40 percent reduction in emissions from 1990 levels — was already in question. State officials have acknowledged the renewables goal is not on schedule. And Hochul has balked at the high near-term costs likely required to achieve steep cuts in emissions in the next five years.
“It’s certainly not going to get easier; it will absolutely get harder,” said Basil Seggos, who headed up New York’s Department of Environmental Conservation during Trump’s first term.
Business groups were already pushing for a reevaluation of the targets and supportive policies, like a zero-emission school bus mandate and clean truck rules aligned with California’s regulations. And New York’s electric grid is facing increasingly slim reliability margins — the cushion of available generation above what’s needed to avoid any risk of blackouts — as new manufacturers, data centers and cryptocurrency miners come online.
“Regardless of who is in the White House, the bottom line is that New York will move forward to meet growing load demands,” said Justin Wilcox, executive director of Upstate United, a business group that advocates for upstate New York. “However, it’s becoming abundantly clear that natural gas will have to remain part of the solution into the foreseeable future.”
Still, environmental leaders are pushing Hochul’s administration and the Legislature to forge ahead.
“We already know those deadlines are in danger,” said Vanessa Fajans-Turner, executive director of Environmental Advocates NY about the 2030 targets. “What matters right now isn’t the last step but the next one. The focus has to stay on building projects and sustaining progress.”
Hochul has expressed commitment to continued subsidies for renewable energy, including offshore wind, and openness to nascent advanced nuclear technologies to fill a gap in New York’s future electric grid.
“Since taking office, Governor Hochul has taken bold action to address the climate crisis and that work will continue regardless of changes in the federal government,” said Hochul spokesperson Paul DeMichele in a statement.
Offshore wind risks
Offshore wind is a fundamental piece of New York’s climate goal puzzle. The state cannot decarbonize its electric system without thousands of offshore turbines to bring clean electricity into New York City and Long Island. The 2019 climate law requires 9,000 megawatts of offshore wind by 2035.
One offshore wind project serving New York is now operational and two others are under construction — all told, about 1,800 megawatts. NYSERDA, the state’s clean energy agency, is expected to announce additional offshore wind contracts once negotiations are complete next year.
Trump and his administration will have broad authority to halt or slow down permitting for projects that already take years to develop. He’s said he’ll stop offshore wind projects.
But many environmentalists in New York and the industry don’t really believe him.
“I’m not convinced that he’s just going to say no to wind,” said Adrienne Esposito, executive director of Citizens Campaign for the Environment.
The industry and their allies are workshopping arguments about jobs and economic benefits accruing nationally but also specifically in states that overwhelmingly backed Trump. Plus, there’s already a host of studies and other hurdles developers have to clear.
“The development cycle for offshore wind is very long anyway, no matter who’s in office,” said Marguerite Wells, executive director for leading renewable trade group Alliance for Clean Energy New York.
Transition costs
Trump has also taken aim at the Inflation Reduction Actand other signature climate funding passed by President Joe Biden. Incentives for energy efficiency improvements, heat pumps, electric vehicles and tax credits for large-scale clean energy projects all face some degree of risk.
The Inflation Reduction Act was expected to reduce the costs of New York’s clean energy transition by $70 billion, according to a 2022 analysis by NYSERDA.
Some of the money may have already been committed and would be difficult for Trump to rescind. In other cases, environmental leaders are banking on Republican support, a jobs argument and the complexity of making changes to the tax code.
“These programs will be generating not just renewable energy, but an incredible amount of economic activity and jobs,” said Seggos, now a partner at law firm Foley Hoag. “When the analysis is in front of decision-makers, I hope, but I think, that there’ll be less emphasis on tearing those programs down.”
Trump’s rejection of mainstream climate science will again shift the onus to states, Seggos said. He noted that the U.S. Climate Alliance — now including 24 governors — was formed in response to Trump withdrawing from the Paris Climate Agreement.
Advocates are pushing for Hochul to sign a bill to charge fossil fuel giants for historic sales of oil and gas, and are gearing up to push lawmakers to pass measures to begin transitioning the state’s gas system, among other bills.
Proponents of cap and invest, Hochul’s signature policy to reduce emissions and raise revenue, say Trump’s election bolsters the need for that policy. Hochul’s administration has delayed draft regulations although they are still targeting a proposal by the end of the year.
Washington state voters earlier this month upheld a cap-and-trade style program there in a high-profile ballot initiative fight.
“Having cap and invest in New York will likely be the biggest pro-climate action policy that we see in the country in 2025,” Tighe said.
Regulatory risks
Incoming EPA chief Lee Zeldin, a former congressmember from Long Island who pushed to authorize hydraulic fracturing in New York, has been tasked with eliminating regulations.
In areas like protecting wetlands and natural resources from in-state pollution sources, New York has robust state programs and EPA-delegated authority — and thus likely won’t see major impacts.
“In some ways, we are very insulated from any potential rollbacks at the EPA level in terms of enforcement,” Seggos said. “We may be one of the outlier states in that we are prepared to continue running our programs in New York.”
But one area of concern is the impact of weakened federal air quality regulations on New York.
The state has struggled with poor air quality due to pollution from upwind states and pushed for federal regulators to step in. One piece of that effort was rejected earlier this year by the U.S. Supreme Court. Environmental groups say increased health-harming pollutants from fossil fuel power plants and other sources outside the state could lead to more problems.
“If we’re going to have more fossil fuel burning in Ohio and Indiana, that will affect air quality in New York — including acid rain,” said Judith Enck, former EPA Region 2 Administrator under President Barack Obama.
Some New York environmental leaders expressed cautious hopes about working with Zeldin, though. Esposito pointed to his support for blocking offshore oil and gas drilling off the East Coast and for funding to protect the Long Island Sound.
“He understands sea-level rise, he understands climate change is real. It’s impacted his community and his neighbors, so it gives me hope that his life experiences and his work as a congressman may translate to his work at EPA, and how Trump will deal with things,” she said. “I’m not expecting great things. I’m just hoping to be able to tread water.”