NY Post: Blue birds fly the coop NY, Calif. to lose DC voting power as residents retreat

January 28th, 2026

Got the blues: NY, California will lose a combined 6 House seats after 2030, census figures analysis shows

Jan. 27, 2026 – Read on NY Post

It’s the blue state blues.

Democratic strongholds New York and California are expected to lose a massive amount of DC voting power after 2030 as hundreds of thousands of residents flee high costs driven by decades of lefty policy-making, experts and a shocking new study said.

New York and California could each lose nearly 10% of their congressional representation after the next US Census is conducted in 2030 – with the Empire State poised to lose two seats and Cali expected to drop four, according to a new analysis of census numbers from the Redistricting Network that showed both state populations shrinking or stagnating.

Republican strongholds Texas and Florida, meanwhile, are expected to win big after 2030 with population growth driving likely four-seat gains apiece – a 10% increase in representation for the Lone Star, and a whopping 14% increase for the Sunshine State.

And experts think the culprit behind the failure to rebound – and the ensuing loss in national influence — is obvious: high taxes, high rents and the high cost of living.

“It’s the high tax structure, the increased cost of utility bills,” Justin Wilcox, executive director of the business advocacy group Upstate United, said of the findings released Tuesday, which were compiled by Carnegie Mellon University redistricting expert Dr. Jonathan Cervas.

The loss of House seats could also cut into the states’ clout in future presidential elections as Electoral College votes are based, in part, on the number of congressional seats in a state.

Both New York and California have struggled to rebuild populations since massive flight — largely to red states — during the 2020 pandemic, with both still down about 200,000 residents as of 2025, recently released US Census Bureau data showed.

Texas and Florida, on the other hand, have gained about 400,000 and 200,000 residents respectively.

Illustration of a map of the United States showing predicted changes in Congressional representation, with states colored based on whether they gain or lose representatives. — The map shows the projected losses and gains for congressional seats.The Redistrict Network

“Americans continue to vote with their feet, fleeing blue states and moving to red states,” New York GOP spokesman David Laska said.

“Who could blame them? One-party Democrat rule has made New York the most taxed, least affordable, least free state in America,” he told The Post.

Even New York City has struggled. Less than a quarter of the roughly half million people who fled during the pandemic have returned as of 2025, the Empire Center think tank found in its own assessment of the Census numbers.

The state as a whole is stagnant, gaining just 1,000 residents between July 1, 2024 and July 1, 2025 to bring its total population to 20,002,427, according to the latest estimates.

“We have been in decline relative to other states for quite some time,” Wilcox added, blaming expensive Democratic bills that have been pouring out of Albany for years.

“They put in place policies that raise the cost on just about everything,” he said.

Critics have good reason for their alarm – New York has the highest taxes per capita in the nation by a long shot, with each individual paying about $3,000 more per year than the next highest state, North Dakota, according to a new analysis of 2023 data the Citizens Budget Commission think tank released Tuesday.

That’s also about $5,000 in taxes more per person than the national average – and about $7,000 more than Florida and Texas, two states with the lowest taxes per capita in the country.

“There’s consequences to high taxes and out-migration. Losing congressional seats is the collateral damage,” said Patrick Bailey, spokesman for the New York State Business Council.

But high taxes aren’t the only problem – declining job counts since the pandemic and beyond have also driven people from the state, according to experts.

New York has failed to recover the 368,000 jobs it lost during the pandemic, while upstate – once a stronghold of American manufacturing – has failed to recover from a gutting of blue-collar jobs over the last two and a half decades.

“Upstate is not producing economic opportunities,” said EJ McMahon, a fellow at the Manhattan Institute who studies NY population changes.

And while people used to pour into NYC from across the country and the world to work in the center of the universe, staggering rent prices – $5,686 per month on average, as of December – have prompted many to abandon living in the city and instead commute from cheaper suburbs.

“New Jersey has many apartments with cheaper rentals,” McMahon said. “New Jersey is the dormitory for New York.

House of Representatives seats are capped at 435, and the number of seats per state changes every 10 years based on population changes in the census.

New York’s projected loss is nothing new – the state has lost seats every 10 years since 1950, going from its 1940s height of 45 seats to the current 26.251

And if populations hold flat or drop, 2030 could leave the state with its weakest sway on the national stage in decades.

“If trends continue, New York will have fewer residents in 2030 than in 2020,” McMahon said.

California, meanwhile, lost one House seat in 2020 after a century of gains.