Albany Times Union: N.Y.’s population could decrease by nearly 3M by 2050

November 16th, 2024

Cornell University researchers said the most extreme projections show New York losing 2.7 million people by 2050. The issue remains a political flashpoint.

By Raga Justin,
Capitol Bureau
Nov 16, 2024

ALBANY — Population researchers at Cornell University issued recent projections that show New York could lose up to nearly 3 million residents by 2050, a stark figure at a time when policymakers remain concerned about a “mass exodus” from the state at one of the nation’s highest rates.

That number represents a few different factors: outmigration, which has dominated political conversations; declining birth rates, and a population that is rapidly aging, according to researchers with Cornell’s Program on Applied Demographics.

And while the spectrum of population loss runs from under 100,000 people at its most conservative to 2.7 million people at its most extreme, according to the report, researchers still pointed to cause for concern for New York’s smaller cities, especially those upstate, that have slowly emptied out or aged in recent years.

Much has been made of New York’s population decline in the past few years, as Republicans have sought to pin the blame on Democrats in charge of all branches of New York’s government. They assert that a widespread affordability crunch and onerous regulations on businesses have contributed to the mass flight of New York residents — and businesses — to more welcoming states in the South.

But other factors also impact population loss, including declining fertility rates that are insufficient to replace an aging population. There are also residents moving into New York.

Still, according to the most recent U.S. Census Bureau data, New York leads the nation in population loss. Since 2020, more than 630,000 residents have left New York — including more than 100,000 who exited during a one-year period ending in July 2023.

That’s come even as lawmakers have touted the creation of tens of thousands of jobs they say will inject much-needed vitality into communities, especially upstate, that have stagnated over the past decades. Companies like Micron and Global Foundries have been repeatedly championed by state and federal lawmakers including Gov. Kathy Hochul and Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer, though it remains unclear whether they will be able to staunch the flow of human capital from New York.

Justin Wilcox, executive director of the trade coalition Upstate United, said affordability issues and the technological advances that have allowed remote working have created the “perfect storm” for New York.

He argued that policy mandates imposed on businesses from Albany lawmakers have driven up costs for New Yorkers and have contributed to a sense that that state is an unaffordable place to live.

“The folks in Albany are very well-intentioned,” Wilcox said. “But they’re looking at one side of the equation. They’re looking at the potential benefits, not looking at the costs. And it really is imperative, because people are voting with their feet.”

From a practical perspective, any rapid decline in population is unsustainable, Wilcox said. Fewer people means fewer resources going into infrastructure like roads and bridges, while state Comptroller Thomas P. DiNapoli has released reports noting that state revenue is threatened when high-income tax filers leave the state.

Business groups have railed against regulations that they argue have imposed higher burdens on small businesses, discouraging many companies from maintaining their investments in the state.

And they point to high-profile cases where long-established businesses have closed shop and left for states with lower taxes and fewer regulations.

The prominent gun manufacturer Remington Arms, long a mainstay of Herkimer County’s Ilion, packed up its New York gun factory and moved to Georgia this year, citing in part an unwelcoming business environment.

And earlier this week, the major tire producer Sumitomo in Erie County abruptly announced the closure of its North American plant and laid off over 1,500 workers, a move state leaders were unprepared for.

One possible fix: an influx of migrants who have in many cases embedded themselves in New York’s workforce, Wilcox said.

Policies that suddenly supercharge a move from neighboring states into New York could also play a large role in slowing down population decline, said Leslie Reynolds, a researcher with Cornell’s Program on Applied Demographics. The program will soon release more granular, county-by-county data that can better help inform where populations are declining.

“We consider migration to be the largest driver here, especially since it’s been a long-standing trend that people are slowly having fewer babies,” Reynolds said.

Some policy advocates have suggested a dearth of affordable child care options is at least partially to blame for younger families opting out of raising their children in New York.

Regionally, the South continues to lead the U.S. in population growth and has remained the most populous region, while the Northeast led the nation in decline and remains the least populous. Among states in the Northeast region, only New York and Pennsylvania saw declining populations this year.

The highest number of New Yorkers, just over 90,000, left the state for Florida. A significant number stayed in the Northeast, according to Census data, with the majority moving to New Jersey, Connecticut and Pennsylvania. About 31,000 people moved to California and Texas.