Buffalo News: Electric grid operator warns of risks from rising power needs

December 12th, 2023

Click here to read the full piece by Matt Glynn of the Buffalo New.

Electric grid operator warns of risks from rising power needs

A new report by the New York Independent System Operator focuses on the need to meet the rising demand for electricity over the next 10 years.

The operator of the state’s electrical grid is warning about the need to keep pace with rising demand for electricity, while ensuring the system remains reliable.

The state budget approved this week does not contain provisions for phasing out natural gas-powered furnaces and appliances in existing homes.

The New York Independent System Operator’s new 10-year forecast, called the comprehensive reliability plan, comes as New York state emphasizes increased electrification in a push to combat climate change.

Some massive projects in development, such as Micron Technology’s planned chip fabrication plant near Syracuse, will add to the demand for more electricity in the next few years, the report said. Meanwhile, some existing power generating facilities will shut down, such as the New York Power Authority’s small natural gas plants in New York City, due to be phased out by the end of 2030.

With only days until the April 1 budget deadline, New York lawmakers are racing to find a compromise on a climate and energy plan. The outcome will fundamentally change the state economy and daily life for millions. Here is how each of the proposals would affect your household.

“There is a clear upward trend forecasted in peak demand over the next 10 years, with significant uncertainty driven by electrification of heating and transportation coupled with the development of multiple high-electric demand facilities,” such as chip fabrication facilities and data centers, the report said.

“As the demand on the grid grows at a rate greater than the build out of generation and transmission, deficiencies could arise within the 10-year planning horizon,” the report said.

“Our latest report demonstrates the continued importance of the NYISO’s in-depth planning process and the need to closely monitor the rapidly changing electric grid,” said Zach Smith, vice president of system and resource planning.

The electric grid’s reliability is “heavily reliant” on completing planned transmission projects in a timely manner, chiefly the Champlain Hudson Power Express, the report said. The $6 billion project, which will link Quebec to New York City, is due to be operational in spring 2026.

“Without the (Champlain) project in service by May 2026 or other offsetting solutions, reliability margins within New York City would be deficient beginning in 2026,” the report said.

Under its climate law, the state is aiming to obtain 70% of its electricity from renewable sources by 2030 and to have a zero-emission grid by 2040.

Environmental groups have praised the push toward renewable energy and away from fossil fuels, saying such a plan is long overdue to fight climate change. But critics say the climate law doesn’t spell out the cost of such a sweeping conversion, how the conversion will be paid for, or where the additional electricity will come from.

“The (comprehensive reliability plan) makes it abundantly clear that we, as a state, have essentially put all our eggs in one basket by way of unrealistic goals set by the (climate law) and other policy initiatives that are changing the type of resource used for electricity generation,” said Justin Wilcox, executive director of Upstate United, a business advocacy group.

The NYISO releases a comprehensive reliability plan every two years, laying out a plan to maintain a reliable grid based on expected changes and conditions over the following decade.