Spectrum News 1 CNY: Report projects 13% population drop in New York state over the next 25 years

November 15th, 2024

PUBLISHED 7:11 PM ET Nov. 15, 2024

New York’s population is declining.

According to a new report by Cornell University, the state’s population could decline by a little more than 2 million people over the next 25 years. That number is a little more than a 13% decrease from the current population.

The report states fertility rates, older residents and more people leaving the state than moving here as contributing factors. At some point in that time period, researchers believe the number of deaths will outpace the amount of births. They say the amount of people coming into New York won’t outpace low fertility rates.

“We’re not surprised given the trends in New York state that the state will continue aging, and migration is really the key driver,” said Leslie Reynolds, a research support specialist for Cornell University’s Program on Applied Demographics. “So there will be a decline.”

The report found people 17 and under are projected to decline between 10 and 25% from now until 2050.

Advocates say the kind of decrease could negatively impact the state’s economy. Cornell wants lawmakers use this report to develop policy that can positively impact population change.

“What’s alarming about that is as people leave, you have a declining tax base, you have the inability to have the same amount of influence you had in Washington prior,” said Upstate United Executive Director Justin Wilcox. “I’m just worried you’re gonna have a declining standard of living because you have a state that’s essentially in decline.”

Spectrum News 1 will get more specific information on this next year when Cornell releases its county-by-county projections in the spring.