Syracuse Post Standard: Electric vehicle target is NY’s latest climate-induced fantasy

May 31st, 2024

Guest Opinion by Justin Wilcox – May 31, 2024

Justin Wilcox is executive director of Upstate United, a nonpartisan, business and taxpayer advocacy coalition focused on growing the Upstate economy. The organization is based in Rochester.

Much like the state’s widely documented failure to establish offshore wind projects, New York’s 2035 ban on vehicles with internal combustion engines is increasingly certain to fail. The fact is state policymakers have once again overlooked the influence of market forces in their hurried efforts to address climate change. Supply and labor shortages contributed to the fate of offshore wind, which was already three times more costly in terms of levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) per megawatt hour than alternatives like combined cycle natural gas. With electric vehicles (EVs), consumer demand is well below what policymakers and automakers hoped for. As a result, manufacturers have seen their ambitious sales targets fail to materialize with production cutbacks quick to follow.

While the goal is to have 850,000 zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) registered in the state by next year, only 87,000 were registered in 2022. Moreover, state regulations require 35% of new car sales to be ZEVs in just two years, and 68% in 2030. Those numbers would require huge increases from less than 4% of sales in 2022. The slow climb in sales of EVs makes it clear that New York will not meet these unrealistic targets.

In short, market demand is not yet there, at least in terms of numbers New York state has mandated. What do consumers have against EVs? Very simply: price, range and availability of charging stations.

EVs remain more costly than comparable gasoline-powered cars, and that’s not likely to change anytime soon. The demand for minerals in lithium-ion batteries is increasing because of EV batteries and batteries for utility-scale energy storage, but opening new mines is politically challenging. High demand and low supply will keep prices high for the foreseeable future.

As to range, while it’s true that most people don’t travel long distances daily, anyone who takes one or two long-distance trips per year must give range thoughtful consideration. And along with that comes the extra time for charging, compared to refueling a gasoline-powered car. New Yorkers don’t want to worry about where they will re-power their cars or want to risk wasting the time to do it.

The availability and accessibility of charging stations will continue to be problematic for several years. Not just along the highways, where restructuring gas stations into charging stations will not only require installing potentially dozens of charging stations but will require running new transmission and distribution lines to meet the vastly increased electrical load.

For these reasons, as well as consumer preference for internal combustion engines, residents aren’t transitioning to EVs as fast as New York had hoped.

Instead, we need to take a closer look at the ambitious climate goals outlined by the state and promote practical alternatives in the interim that are more likely to gain consumer acceptance. And, when it comes to transportation, one such solution is plug-in electric hybrids — which are more comparably priced and produce lower CO2 emissions.

However, even shifting to hybrids will entail huge spending on electrical distribution system updates. If your neighbor buys an EV or hybrid, the increased load on the grid is not large enough to be a problem. But suppose more and more people in your neighborhood do. In that case, the load eventually exceeds the capacity of the wires and transformers, and the equipment that delivers power to your neighborhood will have to be upgraded.

While not technically challenging, the potential of rewiring every community statewide would be an expensive and time-consuming process and will happen in an era where we already have a shortage of electricians and linemen.

Can this all be done by the time the state wants everyone to drive an EV? Not likely.

We need to be realistic about the timelines and costs set by state policymakers when it comes to the CLCPA. There are many pieces to this ambitious puzzle, and rather than forcing one into the wrong place, for the sake of meeting self-imposed mandates, the state should allow the public to move gradually toward lower emissions vehicles, including plug-in hybrids as well as EVs, at a pace they are comfortable with. If they don’t, they shouldn’t be shocked when another one of their rushed policy mandates fails to materialize.