These aspirational policies present New York with real challenges | Opinion

September 15th, 2022

Read the full piece by Justin Wilcox here.

The transition to renewable energy sources to combat climate change is being complicated by many factors — some unforeseen, but others quite predictable and born of rushed policies that fail to account for the enormity of the challenges we face.

New York’s Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act establishes ambitious benchmarks for the state’s energy future, with calls to generate 70% of the state’s energy from renewable sources by 2030, achieve 100% zero-emission electricity generation by 2040, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions 85% by 2050.

The problem is that these goals aren’t as much ambitious as they are aspirational. While we all agree that action needs to be taken, there hasn’t been an honest discussion about the realities of how difficult the path we’re on will be.

For example, the Climate Action Plan to implement the CLPA relies heavily on storage technology and other readily available (dispatchable) energy sources. At the moment, however, the technology necessary to hold these sources of energy for the periods of time necessary to safeguard reliability simply don’t exist.

A plan that relies on technology with doesn’t exist is not only fanciful, but also, quite frankly, dangerous. Without adequate storage capability, removing readily available sources of energy like natural gas from the mix and replacing them with intermittent sources such as wind and solar is likely to stress our grid to the point where reliability is threatened.

The top leaders of the Texas Public Utility Commission and the Electric Reliability Council of Texas say they are working to improve the state’s power grid and to restore public trust.
Just 2,000 miles away from New York, Texas teeters on the edge of an energy disaster. ERCOT, the operator of the Lone Star State’s energy grid, has pleaded with consumers to conserve while facing the threat of rolling blackouts amid a deadly heat wave. California is in a similar situation, where officials recently declared a statewide grid emergency and asked residents to conserve to cope with a surging demand for power in the face of yet another heat wave, raising the threat of rolling blackouts — yet again.

Here in the Empire State, meanwhile, the New York Independent System Operator recently warned that the state’s “reliability margins are thinning to concerning levels beginning in 2023.” In basic terms, that means blackouts in communities statewide — particularly downstate, where scheduled generator retirements threaten to outpace renewable resources coming online — are a distinct possibility if we continue in the direction we’re currently headed.

While the CLCPA’s goals are laudable, they cannot come at the expense of the health and safety of the public – especially those who live in environmental justice communities who will be disproportionately impacted by blackouts. The current plan has too few considerations for the real-world risks associated with implementation and the market signals being sent to power producers.

With numerous planned power plant retirements scheduled for 2023 and 2025, there’s a distinct possibility that state will be forced to backtrack on its ambitious zero-emission electricity goals, while simultaneously placing New Yorkers’ lives at risk and undermining our economic competitiveness.

Given the severity of the situation, discussion over grid reliability should be front-and-center.

Questions that remain unanswered might be uncomfortable, but must be discussed. What is the real cost going to be to consumers? How will we keep companies from leaving the state because of questionable reliability? How will we build a reliable grid when demand is outpacing supply? And how do we do this while placing even more demand on the grid through mandated adoption of electric vehicles by 2035?

And, perhaps most importantly in the short term: Can we really afford to eliminate reliable sources of energy that have already improved New York’s emissions? For example, from 2000-2021 sulfur dioxide emissions were reduced by 99.4%, nitrogen oxides by 92% and carbon dioxide by 46%.

The NYISO recently laid out six key principles for the state’s transition in comments to the state’s Climate Action Council. Chief among the recommendations was coordinating fossil fuel generator retirements with replacement resources instead of pulling the plug without a suitable backup plan.

This is a smart and measured approach. Without such coordination, and without a plan, New York’s clean energy goals will be in direct conflict with the overriding goal of reliability and affordability. We urge Climate Action Council leaders and elected leaders to listen to reason rather than extremists.

Justin Wilcox is executive director of Upstate United, a non-partisan, pro-taxpayer, pro-economic growth and pro-upstate education and advocacy coalition made up of business and trade organizations from across upstate New York.